MSCI Chile AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
20.99%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Week
21.02%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Month
21.13%
decreased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 15, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.17) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0194 | 6.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.1094 | 12.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8792 | 108.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.1707 | 4.22*** |
0.989
Persistence60d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0194 | 6.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1094 | 12.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8792 | 108.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1707 | 4.22*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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