Skip to main content
V-Lab

MSCI Chile MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

22.23%

decreased by 1.12%

1 Week

23.11%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Month

24.99%

increased by 1.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Chile MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 115% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0834
34.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7993
163.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0963
23.20***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0039
8.41***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0305
10.42***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9670
294.01***

Persistence:

0.931

Half-life:

10 days