V-Lab
MSCI Chile MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
20.33%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Week
21.12%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
23.10%
increased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 115% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0834 | 34.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7993 | 163.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0963 | 23.20*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0039 | 8.41*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0305 | 10.42*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9670 | 294.01*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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