MSCI Chile APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
23.12%
1 Week
23.12%
1 Month
23.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 73% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.71 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0211 | 7.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.1105 | 11.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8871 | 115.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.1583 | 5.04*** |
| δpower | 1.7143 | 10.05*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0211 | 7.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1105 | 11.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8871 | 115.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1583 | 5.04*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7143 | 10.05*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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