Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
17.50%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Week
17.54%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Month
17.68%
decreased by 0.89%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2013 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0389 | 4.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.1176 | 7.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8528 | 45.86*** |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0389 | 4.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1176 | 7.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8528 | 45.86*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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