Deutsche Borse SDAX Performance Index (XETRA) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
19.33%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
19.18%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Month
18.72%
decreased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2013 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0500 | 4.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0305 | 1.66* |
| βGARCH | 0.8478 | 50.47*** |
| γleverage | 0.1600 | 3.35*** |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0500 | 4.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 1.66* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8478 | 50.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1600 | 3.35*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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