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V-Lab

TOPIX 100 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

17.58%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

17.82%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

18.60%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of TOPIX 100 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1993 to Mar 19, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 331% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0505
24.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0366
12.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8756
387.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1214
15.74***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days