V-Lab
TOPIX 100 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
17.58%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
17.82%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
18.60%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1993 to Mar 19, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 331% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0505 | 24.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0366 | 12.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8756 | 387.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1214 | 15.74*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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