MSCI Europe APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
11.69%
1 Week
12.00%
1 Month
13.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 1998 to Oct 15, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.10 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0306 | 8.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.0841 | 5.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9005 | 81.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.9442 | 4.28*** |
| δpower | 1.0984 | 9.07*** |
0.972
Persistence25d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0306 | 8.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0841 | 5.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9005 | 81.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.9442 | 4.28*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0984 | 9.07*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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