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MSCI Europe APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

11.69%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

12.00%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

13.05%

increased by 0.72%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Europe APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 1998 to Oct 15, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.10 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocksδ = 1.10 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0306
8.68***
αARCH0.0841
5.81***
βGARCH0.9005
81.60***
γleverage0.9442
4.28***
δpower1.0984
9.07***

0.972

Persistence

25d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0306
8.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0841
5.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9005
81.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.9442
4.28***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0984
9.07***

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

25 days