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Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

10.73%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

10.98%

increased by 0.19%

1 Month

11.85%

increased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC

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graph of Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-lifev = 6.87 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2527
1.80*
αARCH0.0948
10.23***
βGARCH0.9864
124.89***
νDF6.8704
1.96*

0.986

Persistence

51d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2527
1.80*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0948
10.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9864
124.89***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8704
1.96*

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

51 days