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Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

12.09%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Week

12.28%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Month

12.95%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2620
7.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0953
40.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9864
495.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8467
7.86***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days