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Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

12.64%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

12.81%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Month

13.41%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 6.82 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2597
1.78*
αARCH0.0951
10.19***
βGARCH0.9863
122.93***
νDF6.8189
1.97**

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2597
1.78*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0951
10.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9863
122.93***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8189
1.97**

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days