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Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

12.56%

increased by 0.84%

1 Week

12.73%

increased by 1.01%

1 Month

13.33%

increased by 1.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 6.87 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2573
1.79*
αARCH0.0950
10.21***
βGARCH0.9864
124.67***
νDF6.8690
1.96*

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2573
1.79*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0950
10.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9864
124.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8690
1.96*

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days