Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
10.30%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
10.57%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
11.51%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:11 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 6.80 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.2535 | 1.78* |
| αscore | 0.0952 | 10.29*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9864 | 123.37*** |
| νDF | 6.8043 | 2.00** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.2535 | 1.78* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0952 | 10.29*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9864 | 123.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8043 | 2.00** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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