V-Lab
Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
12.56%
increased by 0.84%
1 Week
12.73%
increased by 1.01%
1 Month
13.33%
increased by 1.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 6.87 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2573 | 1.79* |
| αARCH | 0.0950 | 10.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9864 | 124.67*** |
| νDF | 6.8690 | 1.96* |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2573 | 1.79* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0950 | 10.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9864 | 124.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8690 | 1.96* |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices