V-Lab
Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
10.73%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
10.98%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
11.85%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-lifev = 6.87 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2527 | 1.80* |
| αARCH | 0.0948 | 10.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9864 | 124.89*** |
| νDF | 6.8704 | 1.96* |
0.986
Persistence51d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2527 | 1.80* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0948 | 10.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9864 | 124.89*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8704 | 1.96* |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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