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Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026

1 Day

10.30%

increased by 0.10%

1 Week

10.57%

increased by 0.37%

1 Month

11.51%

increased by 1.31%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:11 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/05/2024

to

11/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 6.80 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.2535
1.78*
αscore0.0952
10.29***
βpersistence0.9864
123.37***
νDF6.8043
2.00**

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.2535
1.78*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0952
10.29***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9864
123.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8043
2.00**

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days