V-Lab
Straits Times Index STI GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.09%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
12.28%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
12.95%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2620 | 7.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0953 | 40.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9864 | 495.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8467 | 7.86*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices