V-Lab
Straits Times Index STI MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.11%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
11.69%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
13.16%
increased by 1.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 302% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0443 | 16.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8133 | 198.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1340 | 30.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1131 | 0.76 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8956 | 0.73 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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