V-Lab
Straits Times Index STI MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
10.35%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
10.73%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
12.21%
increased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 302% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0444 | 16.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8132 | 198.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1343 | 30.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1125 | 0.76 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8960 | 0.74 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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