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V-Lab

Straits Times Index STI MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

10.35%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

10.73%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

12.21%

increased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 12:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Straits Times Index STI MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 302% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0444
16.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8132
198.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1343
30.74***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1125
0.76
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8960
0.74
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days