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V-Lab

Straits Times Index STI AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

13.00%

increased by 1.42%

1 Week

13.27%

increased by 1.69%

1 Month

14.18%

increased by 2.60%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 10:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Straits Times Index STI AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.33) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0153
4.29***
αARCH0.1193
10.15***
βGARCH0.8604
75.56***
γleverage0.3270
7.65***

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0153
4.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1193
10.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8604
75.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3270
7.65***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days