V-Lab
Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.27%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
11.95%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
13.88%
increased by 1.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.53) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0172 | 10.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1162 | 52.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8495 | 347.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5264 | 39.96*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
Other Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices