Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
17.93%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
18.00%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
18.26%
decreased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.53) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0169 | 10.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1158 | 52.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8502 | 348.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5281 | 39.95*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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