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Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

15.35%

increased by 0.66%

1 Week

15.62%

increased by 0.93%

1 Month

16.45%

increased by 1.76%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 1996 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.53) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0170
2.60***
αARCH0.1151
13.09***
βGARCH0.8506
87.58***
γleverage0.5282
10.00***

0.966

Persistence

20d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0170
2.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1151
13.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8506
87.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5282
10.00***

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days