Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
20.71%
decreased by 1.58%
1 Week
20.61%
decreased by 1.68%
1 Month
20.29%
decreased by 2.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.53) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0169 | 10.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1160 | 52.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8502 | 348.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5278 | 39.98*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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