Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
18.66%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
18.68%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
18.76%
decreased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.53) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0170 | 2.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.1155 | 13.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8503 | 87.40*** |
| γleverage | 0.5280 | 10.00*** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0170 | 2.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1155 | 13.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8503 | 87.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5280 | 10.00*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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