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V-Lab

Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

17.16%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Week

17.27%

decreased by 0.94%

1 Month

17.64%

decreased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 309% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0380
36.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1095
49.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8793
405.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5689
33.72***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0909
37.89***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days