Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
17.16%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
17.27%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Month
17.64%
decreased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 309% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0380 | 36.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1095 | 49.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8793 | 405.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5689 | 33.72*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0909 | 37.89*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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