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V-Lab
V-Lab

Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

17.04%

increased by 1.49%

1 Week

17.23%

increased by 1.68%

1 Month

17.90%

increased by 2.35%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7587
8.00***
αARCH0.1307
12.60***
βGARCH0.8471
80.85***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0009
-1.05

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7587
8.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1307
12.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8471
80.85***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0009
-1.05

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days