V-Lab
Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
17.04%
increased by 1.49%
1 Week
17.23%
increased by 1.68%
1 Month
17.90%
increased by 2.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7587 | 8.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.1307 | 12.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8471 | 80.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0009 | -1.05 |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7587 | 8.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1307 | 12.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8471 | 80.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0009 | -1.05 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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