V-Lab
Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
15.90%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
16.20%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
17.22%
increased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7725 | 9.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.1305 | 12.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8474 | 81.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -3.69*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7725 | 9.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1305 | 12.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8474 | 81.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -3.69*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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