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Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026

1 Day

17.40%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

17.62%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

18.35%

increased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/05/2024

to

11/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 1996 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7713
9.08***
αARCH0.1299
12.58***
βGARCH0.8479
81.37***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-3.71***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7713
9.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1299
12.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8479
81.37***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-3.71***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days