Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

17.38%

increased by 1.16%

1 Week

17.60%

increased by 1.38%

1 Month

18.33%

increased by 2.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7716
9.07***
αARCH0.1301
12.59***
βGARCH0.8478
81.29***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-3.70***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7716
9.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1301
12.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8478
81.29***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-3.70***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days