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V-Lab
V-Lab

Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

15.44%

decreased by 0.85%

1 Week

15.77%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

16.87%

increased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7729
9.03***
αARCH0.1306
12.59***
βGARCH0.8473
80.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-3.66***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7729
9.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1306
12.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8473
80.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-3.66***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days