V-Lab
Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
15.44%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
15.77%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
16.87%
increased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7729 | 9.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.1306 | 12.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8473 | 80.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -3.66*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7729 | 9.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1306 | 12.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8473 | 80.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -3.66*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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