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V-Lab

Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

13.10%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Week

13.59%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

15.19%

increased by 1.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7734
8.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1308
12.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8472
80.84***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-3.66***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days