V-Lab
Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
13.10%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
13.59%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
15.19%
increased by 1.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7734 | 8.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1308 | 12.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8472 | 80.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -3.66*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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