V-Lab
Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
14.58%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
14.80%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
15.54%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 07:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0274 | 6.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1280 | 13.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8547 | 86.61*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0274 | 6.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1280 | 13.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8547 | 86.61*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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