Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
16.61%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
16.71%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
17.02%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0368 | 6.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0357 | 3.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8566 | 92.16*** |
| γleverage | 0.1600 | 6.13*** |
0.972
Persistence25d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0368 | 6.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0357 | 3.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8566 | 92.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1600 | 6.13*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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