V-Lab
Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
19.96%
increased by 4.54%
1 Week
19.87%
increased by 4.45%
1 Month
19.59%
increased by 4.17%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0368 | 6.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0359 | 3.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8562 | 91.97*** |
| γleverage | 0.1605 | 6.14*** |
0.972
Persistence25d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0368 | 6.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0359 | 3.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8562 | 91.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1605 | 6.14*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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