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Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

17.14%

increased by 1.48%

1 Week

17.20%

increased by 1.54%

1 Month

17.44%

increased by 1.78%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-lifev = 10.65 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4502
2.50**
αARCH0.1118
8.04***
βGARCH0.9838
140.78***
νDF10.6486
1.13

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4502
2.50**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1118
8.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9838
140.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.6486
1.13

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days