Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
17.85%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
17.89%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
18.04%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-lifev = 10.69 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.4506 | 2.51** |
| αscore | 0.1118 | 8.04*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9838 | 141.41*** |
| νDF | 10.6859 | 1.12 |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.4506 | 2.51** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1118 | 8.04*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9838 | 141.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.6859 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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