V-Lab
Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
16.37%
increased by 0.75%
1 Week
16.46%
increased by 0.84%
1 Month
16.80%
increased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-lifev = 10.62 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4504 | 2.50** |
| αARCH | 0.1121 | 8.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9837 | 140.13*** |
| νDF | 10.6200 | 1.13 |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4504 | 2.50** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1121 | 8.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9837 | 140.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.6200 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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