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V-Lab

Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

12.06%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Week

12.35%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

13.33%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4504
9.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1123
32.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9838
559.29***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.5945
4.54***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days