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Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

17.64%

decreased by 1.30%

1 Week

17.69%

decreased by 1.25%

1 Month

17.87%

decreased by 1.07%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 1996 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-lifev = 10.66 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4561
2.50**
αARCH0.1120
8.05***
βGARCH0.9838
140.83***
νDF10.6554
1.13

0.984

Persistence

42d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4561
2.50**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1120
8.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9838
140.83***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.6554
1.13

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days