Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
17.14%
increased by 1.48%
1 Week
17.20%
increased by 1.54%
1 Month
17.44%
increased by 1.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 42 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 42 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 42-day half-lifev = 10.65 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4502 | 2.50** |
| αARCH | 0.1118 | 8.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9838 | 140.78*** |
| νDF | 10.6486 | 1.13 |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4502 | 2.50** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1118 | 8.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9838 | 140.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.6486 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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