Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
14.05%
increased by 0.43%
1 Week
14.42%
increased by 0.80%
1 Month
15.41%
increased by 1.79%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0081 | 0.76 |
| βGARCH | 0.8088 | 61.67*** |
| γleverage | 0.2036 | 11.84*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0144 | 2.39** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0650 | 3.48*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9235 | 41.35*** |
0.919
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0081 | 0.76 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8088 | 61.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2036 | 11.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0144 | 2.39** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0650 | 3.48*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9235 | 41.35*** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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