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V-Lab

Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026

1 Day

32.11%

increased by 10.80%

1 Week

31.28%

increased by 9.97%

1 Month

28.32%

increased by 7.01%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 29, 1996 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0042
1.44
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8239
273.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1959
48.29***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0560
1.63
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2712
1.56
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6841
3.37***

Persistence:

0.926

Half-life:

9 days