V-Lab
Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
20.08%
increased by 5.12%
1 Week
19.62%
increased by 4.66%
1 Month
18.67%
increased by 3.71%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0083 | 0.77 |
| βGARCH | 0.8080 | 61.41*** |
| γleverage | 0.2045 | 11.84*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0146 | 2.38** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0660 | 3.47*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9223 | 40.44*** |
0.919
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0083 | 0.77 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8080 | 61.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2045 | 11.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0146 | 2.38** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0660 | 3.47*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9223 | 40.44*** |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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