V-Lab
Deutsche Borse AG DAX Mid-Cap Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
16.45%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
16.61%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
17.20%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 29, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.0053 | 0.53 |
| βGARCH | 0.8228 | 68.15*** |
| γleverage | 0.1951 | 11.81*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0581 | 2.48** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2769 | 3.61*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6760 | 7.34*** |
0.926
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0053 | 0.53 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8228 | 68.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1951 | 11.81*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0581 | 2.48** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2769 | 3.61*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6760 | 7.34*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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