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S&P Composite 1500 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

13.92%

increased by 1.95%

1 Week

14.09%

increased by 2.12%

1 Month

14.67%

increased by 2.70%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Composite 1500 Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 31, 1994 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0245
4.98***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8903
97.48***
γleverage0.1803
7.63***

0.980

Persistence

35d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0245
4.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8903
97.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1803
7.63***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days