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V-Lab

S&P Composite 1500 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026

1 Day

13.41%

decreased by 1.09%

1 Week

13.76%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Month

14.86%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/26/2024

to

10/26/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Composite 1500 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 31, 1994 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.62) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.1139
7.06***
βGARCH0.8529
49.23***
γleverage0.6184
4.55***

0.967

Persistence

21d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1139
7.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8529
49.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6184
4.55***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days