V-Lab
S&P Composite 1500 Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.89%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
14.08%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
14.74%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0059 | 0.42 |
| αARCH | 0.1472 | 7.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9698 | 143.57*** |
| γleverage | -0.1420 | -8.71*** |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0059 | 0.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1472 | 7.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9698 | 143.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1420 | -8.71*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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