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V-Lab

S&P Composite 1500 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

13.14%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

13.65%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

15.14%

increased by 1.48%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Composite 1500 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 31, 1994 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8367
206.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2157
42.14***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0122
5.41***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0547
3.93***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9350
58.68***

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days