V-Lab
S&P Composite 1500 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.14%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
13.65%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
15.14%
increased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1994 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8367 | 206.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2157 | 42.14*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0122 | 5.41*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0547 | 3.93*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9350 | 58.68*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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