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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

16.87%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Week

17.33%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

18.46%

increased by 0.93%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0201
2.33**
βGARCH0.8450
76.46***
γleverage0.1534
10.96***
λ₁tau intercept0.0012
1.66*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0142
5.14***
λ₃tau persistence0.9851
331.25***

0.942

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0201
2.33**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8450
76.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1534
10.96***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0012
1.66*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0142
5.14***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9851
331.25***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days