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V-Lab

Egyptian Financial Group Hermes Stock Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 12th, 2026

1 Day

17.35%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Week

17.73%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Month

19.04%

increased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Egyptian Financial Group Hermes Stock Market Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1995 to Jul 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 87% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0980
14.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7084
42.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0849
11.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.4398
1.14
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8078
1.02
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.849

Half-life:

4 days