V-Lab
Egyptian Financial Group Hermes Stock Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026
1 Day
13.51%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
15.06%
increased by 1.14%
1 Month
17.42%
increased by 3.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1995 to Jul 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 87% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0980 | 14.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7077 | 42.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0851 | 11.56*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4361 | 1.15 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8091 | 1.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.848
Half-life:
4 days
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