V-Lab
Egyptian Financial Group Hermes Stock Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
22.43%
increased by 6.95%
1 Week
21.99%
increased by 6.51%
1 Month
21.07%
increased by 5.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1995 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 88% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0977 | 14.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7072 | 42.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0861 | 11.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4379 | 1.15 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8084 | 1.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.848
Half-life:
4 days
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