V-Lab
Egyptian Financial Group Hermes Stock Market Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.95%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
15.85%
increased by 0.92%
1 Month
18.43%
increased by 3.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1995 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0881 | 11.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1480 | 24.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8169 | 102.06*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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