V-Lab
Egyptian Financial Group Hermes Stock Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.41%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
15.41%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
18.22%
increased by 3.81%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1995 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 54% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0909 | 12.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1166 | 13.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8161 | 105.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0627 | 5.44*** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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