V-Lab
Egyptian Financial Group Hermes Stock Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
21.85%
increased by 5.86%
1 Week
22.10%
increased by 6.11%
1 Month
22.89%
increased by 6.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1995 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 54% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0912 | 12.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1167 | 13.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8159 | 105.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0626 | 5.44*** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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