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V-Lab

Egyptian Financial Group Hermes Stock Market Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026

1 Day

14.39%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

15.39%

increased by 1.00%

1 Month

18.21%

increased by 3.82%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Egyptian Financial Group Hermes Stock Market Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1995 to Aug 13, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.14) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0880
12.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1467
24.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8173
103.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1395
6.79***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days