V-Lab
Egyptian Financial Group Hermes Stock Market Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.39%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
15.39%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
18.21%
increased by 3.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1995 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.14) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0880 | 12.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1467 | 24.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8173 | 103.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1395 | 6.79*** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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