V-Lab
Egyptian Financial Group Hermes Stock Market Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.35%
increased by 0.53%
1 Week
14.74%
increased by 0.92%
1 Month
16.14%
increased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1995 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8435 | 5.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1116 | 79.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9925 | 728.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1329 | 37.51*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
92 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices