V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
13.15%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
13.17%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
13.47%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8443 | 64.37*** |
| γleverage | 0.1882 | 12.07*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0184 | 1.66* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0859 | 1.89* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8944 | 16.05*** |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8443 | 64.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1882 | 12.07*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0184 | 1.66* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0859 | 1.89* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8944 | 16.05*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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