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V-Lab

Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

24.56%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

27.33%

increased by 2.54%

1 Month

38.02%

increased by 13.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0008
0.18
βGARCH0.7985
51.43***
γleverage0.1579
10.04***
λ₁tau intercept0.0967
3.31***
λ₂forecast adj.0.2308
8.53***
λ₃tau persistence0.7433
22.53***

0.878

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0008
0.18
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7985
51.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1579
10.04***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0967
3.31***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2308
8.53***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7433
22.53***

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days