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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

60.04%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

59.36%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Month

56.84%

decreased by 3.45%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 199% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0677
15.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0350
9.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9141
333.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0694
10.51***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

42 days