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State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

37.50%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Week

37.32%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

36.64%

decreased by 1.28%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 225% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 225% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0699
3.81***
αARCH0.0318
2.29**
βGARCH0.9150
85.34***
γleverage0.0714
2.76***

0.982

Persistence

39d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0699
3.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0318
2.29**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9150
85.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0714
2.76***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days