V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
60.04%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
59.36%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Month
56.84%
decreased by 3.45%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 199% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0677 | 15.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0350 | 9.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9141 | 333.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0694 | 10.51*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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