V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
37.50%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
37.32%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
36.64%
decreased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 225% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 225% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0699 | 3.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0318 | 2.29** |
| βGARCH | 0.9150 | 85.34*** |
| γleverage | 0.0714 | 2.76*** |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0699 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0318 | 2.29** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9150 | 85.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0714 | 2.76*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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