V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
59.84%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
59.03%
decreased by 1.98%
1 Month
56.29%
decreased by 4.72%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7920 | 7.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0749 | 7.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8965 | 64.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0205 | -1.89* |
| γ2 | 0.0419 | 2.61*** |
| γ3 | -0.0335 | -3.95*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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