V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
55.30%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Week
54.12%
decreased by 2.51%
1 Month
50.10%
decreased by 6.53%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 60% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1265 | 27.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1415 | 25.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7841 | 212.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0843 | 8.97*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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