V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
55.82%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
52.60%
decreased by 3.75%
1 Month
43.56%
decreased by 12.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 49% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.27 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0904 | 24.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1863 | 49.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7891 | 201.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1568 | 17.24*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2710 | 27.69*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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