V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
58.25%
decreased by 2.34%
1 Week
57.53%
decreased by 3.06%
1 Month
54.93%
decreased by 5.66%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.83) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0350 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0733 | 33.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9079 | 346.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8263 | 18.57*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
Other State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on ETFs