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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

58.25%

decreased by 2.34%

1 Week

57.53%

decreased by 3.06%

1 Month

54.93%

decreased by 5.66%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.83) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0350
5.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0733
33.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9079
346.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.8263
18.57***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days