V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
59.29%
increased by 1.14%
1 Week
58.07%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
54.07%
decreased by 4.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 128% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0291 | 13.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1459 | 28.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9808 | 935.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0570 | -12.37*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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