V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
59.65%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
59.07%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
57.19%
decreased by 2.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0221 | 6.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9010 | 246.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0911 | 20.34*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0030 | 2.81*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0171 | 9.77*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9829 | 506.65*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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