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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

59.65%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

59.07%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

57.19%

decreased by 2.37%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0221
6.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9010
246.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0911
20.34***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0030
2.81***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0171
9.77***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9829
506.65***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days