Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

37.62%

increased by 1.49%

1 Week

37.47%

increased by 1.34%

1 Month

36.92%

increased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-lifev = 11.14 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.0109
2.69***
αARCH0.0704
6.66***
βGARCH0.9859
143.15***
νDF11.1356
0.84

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.0109
2.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0704
6.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9859
143.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

11.1356
0.84

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days