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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

64.27%

decreased by 1.07%

1 Week

63.65%

decreased by 1.69%

1 Month

61.29%

decreased by 4.05%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.1593
9.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0705
27.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9868
578.44***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.5388
3.51***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days