V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
56.19%
decreased by 2.66%
1 Week
55.14%
decreased by 3.71%
1 Month
51.52%
decreased by 7.33%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1272 | 8.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1982 | 34.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7727 | 203.60*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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