V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
61.39%
increased by 0.69%
1 Week
60.56%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
57.60%
decreased by 3.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 169% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.34 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0476 | 17.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0768 | 25.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9174 | 322.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3547 | 12.08*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3357 | 27.25*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
Other State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on ETFs