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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

61.39%

increased by 0.69%

1 Week

60.56%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

57.60%

decreased by 3.10%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 169% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.34 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0476
17.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0768
25.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9174
322.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3547
12.08***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3357
27.25***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days