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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

62.06%

decreased by 1.14%

1 Week

61.57%

decreased by 1.63%

1 Month

59.87%

decreased by 3.33%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9685
10.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0747
7.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9015
71.16***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0057
3.22***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days