V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
62.06%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Week
61.57%
decreased by 1.63%
1 Month
59.87%
decreased by 3.33%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9685 | 10.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0747 | 7.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9015 | 71.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0057 | 3.22*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
Other State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs