V-Lab
Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
13.75%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
13.81%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
14.00%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 13, 2019 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
The leverage effect is captured by the negative gamma (gamma = -0.1542), confirming that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks of equal magnitude.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: Negative shocks have larger impact on volatility (leverage effect)
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | -0.0056 | -0.16 |
| αARCH | 0.0805 | 1.21 |
| βGARCH | 0.9652 | 46.72*** |
| γleverage | -0.1542 | -4.33*** |
0.965
Persistence20d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | -0.0056 | -0.16 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0805 | 1.21 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9652 | 46.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1542 | -4.33*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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