V-Lab
Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
11.39%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
11.63%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
12.32%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 13, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 6.58 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7734 | 1.68* |
| αARCH | 0.1239 | 3.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9561 | 29.78*** |
| νDF | 6.5825 | 0.97 |
0.956
Persistence15d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7734 | 1.68* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1239 | 3.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9561 | 29.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5825 | 0.97 |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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