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V-Lab
V-Lab

Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

11.39%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Week

11.63%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Month

12.32%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 13, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 6.58 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7734
1.68*
αARCH0.1239
3.51***
βGARCH0.9561
29.78***
νDF6.5825
0.97

0.956

Persistence

15d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7734
1.68*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1239
3.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9561
29.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5825
0.97

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

15 days