V-Lab
Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
18.83%
increased by 4.45%
1 Week
18.49%
increased by 4.11%
1 Month
17.41%
increased by 3.03%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 13, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7867 | 6.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1241 | 13.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9574 | 115.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6572 | 3.73*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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