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V-Lab

Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

18.83%

increased by 4.45%

1 Week

18.49%

increased by 4.11%

1 Month

17.41%

increased by 3.03%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 13, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7867
6.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1241
13.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9574
115.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.6572
3.73***

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days