V-Lab
Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
20.85%
increased by 5.43%
1 Week
20.55%
increased by 5.13%
1 Month
19.68%
increased by 4.26%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 13, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3505 | 3.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1243 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8231 | 30.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0669 | 1.66* |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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