V-Lab
Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
9.77%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
10.18%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
11.20%
increased by 1.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 13, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7747 | 30.66*** |
| γleverage | 0.2192 | 8.07*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0124 | 1.67* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0503 | 2.73*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9304 | 36.73*** |
0.884
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7747 | 30.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2192 | 8.07*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0124 | 1.67* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0503 | 2.73*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9304 | 36.73*** |
Persistence:
0.884
Half-life:
6 days
Other Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs