Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

9.77%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

10.18%

increased by 0.19%

1 Month

11.20%

increased by 1.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 13, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.7747
30.66***
γleverage0.2192
8.07***
λ₁tau intercept0.0124
1.67*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0503
2.73***
λ₃tau persistence0.9304
36.73***

0.884

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7747
30.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2192
8.07***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0124
1.67*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0503
2.73***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9304
36.73***

Persistence:

0.884

Half-life:

6 days