V-Lab
Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
13.00%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
13.35%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
14.47%
increased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 13, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7744 | 59.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2138 | 25.49*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0120 | 2.04** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0529 | 2.43** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9288 | 32.78*** |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
Other Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs