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V-Lab
V-Lab

Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

11.26%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

11.58%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

12.46%

increased by 0.63%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 13, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4606
2.64***
αARCH0.1276
5.01***
βGARCH0.8218
30.86***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.1232
1.29
γ2-0.1445
-1.26

0.949

Persistence

13d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4606
2.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1276
5.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8218
30.86***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.1232
1.29
γ2-0.1445
-1.26

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days