V-Lab
Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
20.06%
increased by 5.76%
1 Week
19.61%
increased by 5.31%
1 Month
18.22%
increased by 3.92%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 13, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4716 | 2.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1247 | 4.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8272 | 31.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.1312 | 1.31 |
| γ2 | -0.1545 | -1.28 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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