V-Lab
Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
17.05%
increased by 3.26%
1 Week
16.83%
increased by 3.04%
1 Month
16.16%
increased by 2.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 13, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.66) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0861 | 7.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8679 | 60.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6607 | 6.95*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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