V-Lab
Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
10.45%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
10.72%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
11.56%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 13, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0279 | 2.56** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8831 | 31.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.1608 | 2.68*** |
0.963
Persistence19d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0279 | 2.56** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8831 | 31.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1608 | 2.68*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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