V-Lab
Ishares Core Equity ETF PTF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
13.11%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
12.94%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
12.59%
decreased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 13, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 100% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.30 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0797 | 16.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2535 | 27.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6765 | 56.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2615 | 15.01*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2967 | 15.75*** |
Persistence:
0.889
Half-life:
6 days
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