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V-Lab

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

119.17%

decreased by 8.77%

1 Week

120.13%

decreased by 7.81%

1 Month

121.76%

decreased by 6.18%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5721
5.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1369
4.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7181
14.20***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.4818
-2.18**
γ20.7462
2.29**
γ3-0.4809
-1.93*
γ40.3768
1.24
γ5-0.3428
-1.32
γ60.4569
2.27**
γ7-0.3976
-1.47
γ8-0.1147
-0.33
γ90.6147
2.04**
γ10-0.5491
-3.55***

Persistence:

0.855

Half-life:

4 days