V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
119.17%
decreased by 8.77%
1 Week
120.13%
decreased by 7.81%
1 Month
121.76%
decreased by 6.18%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5721 | 5.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1369 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7181 | 14.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4818 | -2.18** |
| γ2 | 0.7462 | 2.29** |
| γ3 | -0.4809 | -1.93* |
| γ4 | 0.3768 | 1.24 |
| γ5 | -0.3428 | -1.32 |
| γ6 | 0.4569 | 2.27** |
| γ7 | -0.3976 | -1.47 |
| γ8 | -0.1147 | -0.33 |
| γ9 | 0.6147 | 2.04** |
| γ10 | -0.5491 | -3.55*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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