V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
122.34%
decreased by 7.27%
1 Week
124.08%
decreased by 5.53%
1 Month
127.04%
decreased by 2.57%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5712 | 5.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1371 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7178 | 14.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4833 | -2.19** |
| γ2 | 0.7481 | 2.30** |
| γ3 | -0.4812 | -1.93* |
| γ4 | 0.3768 | 1.24 |
| γ5 | -0.3426 | -1.32 |
| γ6 | 0.4565 | 2.27** |
| γ7 | -0.3971 | -1.47 |
| γ8 | -0.1153 | -0.33 |
| γ9 | 0.6161 | 2.04** |
| γ10 | -0.5527 | -3.55*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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