V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
92.04%
decreased by 4.77%
1 Week
96.25%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
103.11%
increased by 6.30%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5740 | 5.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1368 | 4.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7181 | 14.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4748 | -2.16** |
| γ2 | 0.7347 | 2.26** |
| γ3 | -0.4730 | -1.91* |
| γ4 | 0.3714 | 1.23 |
| γ5 | -0.3404 | -1.32 |
| γ6 | 0.4607 | 2.32** |
| γ7 | -0.4135 | -1.55 |
| γ8 | -0.0885 | -0.26 |
| γ9 | 0.5902 | 1.94* |
| γ10 | -0.5360 | -3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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