CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
177.19%
decreased by 26.51%
1 Week
162.05%
decreased by 41.65%
1 Month
131.87%
decreased by 71.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5703 | 5.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1368 | 4.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7183 | 14.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4963 | -2.24** |
| γ2 | 0.7699 | 2.35** |
| γ3 | -0.4969 | -1.95* |
| γ4 | 0.3881 | 1.25 |
| γ5 | -0.3486 | -1.33 |
| γ6 | 0.4511 | 2.19** |
| γ7 | -0.3711 | -1.34 |
| γ8 | -0.1520 | -0.44 |
| γ9 | 0.6291 | 2.13** |
| γ10 | -0.5364 | -3.59*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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