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V-Lab

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

177.19%

decreased by 26.51%

1 Week

162.05%

decreased by 41.65%

1 Month

131.87%

decreased by 71.83%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5703
5.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1368
4.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7183
14.18***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.4963
-2.24**
γ20.7699
2.35**
γ3-0.4969
-1.95*
γ40.3881
1.25
γ5-0.3486
-1.33
γ60.4511
2.19**
γ7-0.3711
-1.34
γ8-0.1520
-0.44
γ90.6291
2.13**
γ10-0.5364
-3.59***

Persistence:

0.855

Half-life:

4 days